[SMM survey] Capacity replacement halted & overcapacity; rapid decline in the number of blast furnaces to be commissioned in 2025

Based on SMM survey data: In the first half of 2025, nine new blast furnaces were commissioned nationwide, with a total ironmaking capacity of 12.5 million mt. The volumes of the newly commissioned blast furnaces were all above 1200m³. The number of newly commissioned blast furnaces was relatively small, and they were scattered across different regions. At the same time, 18 blast furnaces were decommissioned, with a total ironmaking capacity of 12.53 million mt. Most of the decommissioned blast furnaces were small ones with volumes below 1080m³. The specific situation is as follows:

Data source: SMM

According to SMM's tracking of blast furnaces, there are still some blast furnaces under construction. In the second half of 2025, about 11 new blast furnaces are expected to be commissioned, with a total ironmaking capacity of 17.92 million mt. The volumes of the commissioned blast furnaces are mostly concentrated in the range of 1200-3000m³, mainly in the Central China, North China, and Southwest China regions. The commissioning time is generally in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, 11 blast furnaces are planned to be decommissioned, with a total ironmaking capacity of 8.7 million mt. Most of the decommissioned blast furnaces have volumes below 1000m³. Due to capacity transfer issues at individual steel mills, some decommissioned blast furnaces have relatively large volumes. The specific situation is as follows:

Data source: SMM

Currently, the replacement of blast furnaces has been halted. All blast furnaces commissioned or to be commissioned this year are those under construction. According to SMM's survey, due to the decline in steel mill profits over the past two years and the surplus in industrial capacity, the progress of some steel mills' blast furnace construction projects has been slow. Therefore, SMM expects that the actual number of commissioned and decommissioned blast furnaces may be smaller than the current statistics. SMM will update the actual commissioned and decommissioned capacities of China's blast furnaces in 2025 at the year-end.

Data source: SMM

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